Population ageing in Kazakhstan continues to accelerate. The ageing index, which shows how many elderly people account for every 100 children, has been steadily increasing in recent years. While the indicator stood at 26.7 in 2021, by 2025 it had reached 32.9. This means that there were already almost 33 elderly people per 100 children under the age of 15 in the country. In effect, the indicator has risen markedly over the past four years, and the trend remains устойчивым.

Urban populations are ageing particularly rapidly. In 2025, the urban population ageing index reached 34.9, compared to 28.8 in 2021. The situation in rural areas is somewhat less severe, although the upward trend is also evident there: the indicator increased from 23.9 to 29.6. This suggests that the demographic gap between generations is narrowing across the country.

The regional picture appeared even more alarming. In a number of regions, Kazakhstan has effectively already entered a phase of pronounced population ageing. The highest indicators were recorded in North Kazakhstan Region (84.1), East Kazakhstan Region (80.7), and Kostanay Region (71.3). In these regions, the number of elderly residents could soon approach the number of children. Karaganda Region (56.6), Pavlodar Region (60.2), and Akmola Region (54.2) also demonstrate an extremely unfavourable population structure.

At the other end of the spectrum remain the southern and oil-producing regions, where demographics are comparatively younger — Mangystau Region (16.2), Turkistan Region (17.2), Shymkent (17), and Atyrau Region (20.7). However, even there the indicators continue to rise gradually, albeit from a lower base, and are unable to reverse the country’s overall negative demographic trend.

The key reason behind this trend is the worsening balance between birth rates and population ageing. Despite overall population growth, the demographic structure is shifting away from younger age groups. After a period of growth, the number of children under the age of 14 has effectively stabilised and has even begun to decline: from 5.9 million people at the beginning of 2024 and 2025 to 5.8 million at the beginning of 2026. Overall, the number of children increased by 21.5% over the past decade.

At the same time, the number of elderly Kazakhstan residents aged 65 and over has been steadily increasing, rising from 1.2 million people at the beginning of 2016 to 2 million at the beginning of 2026. Over the decade, the elderly population in the country grew by as much as 59.6% — significantly faster than the number of children.

Additional pressure is being created by declining birth rates. In 2025, the crude birth rate fell to 16.4 per 1 thousand people. This represents a sharp, though expected, decline compared to the post-pandemic level of 23.5 recorded in 2021. In just four years, the birth rate in the country has fallen by almost a third. In urban areas, the birth rate dropped from 23.2 in 2021 to 15.8 in 2025, while in rural areas it declined from 23.8 to 17.5. Regionally, the lowest birth rates in 2025 were recorded in North Kazakhstan Region (9 per 1 thousand people), Kostanay Region (10), and East Kazakhstan Region (10.5).

Even in regions traditionally characterised by high birth rates, such as Turkistan Region (22.2) and Mangystau Region (21.4), growth has been gradually slowing. This means that the demographic “safety cushion” the country previously relied on is steadily weakening.

Population growth alone is no longer enough to resolve the issue. The population is increasing, but the share of elderly people within it is growing as well. As a result, the balance is shifting: the burden on the working population is rising, while the future labour force is shrinking.

The current trends are likely to persist, as this is a global pattern and a natural manifestation of demographic transition. Pressure on the labour market, healthcare system, and social welfare sector will continue to intensify. The longer solutions aimed at adapting society to this new reality are delayed, the more difficult and costly it will become to address the situation.