Examining What Is Wrong With the Official Trade Data

In the first half of 2026, Kazakhstan’s total trade turnover reached KZT 36.2 trillion, while real growth in physical volume stood at 5.7%.

Wholesale trade made the largest contribution, with turnover rising by 6.6% in real terms to KZT 24.5 trillion. Non-food goods and products for industrial and technical purposes accounted for 79.5% of wholesale turnover. The largest wholesale trade centers were Almaty city (35.2% of the nationwide total), Atyrau Region (14.9%), Astana city (14.3%) and Karaganda Region (5.5%).

Retail trade turnover, meanwhile, reached KZT 11.5 trillion in the first half of the year, up 3.8% compared with January–June 2025. Sales through retail enterprises increased by 0.8%, while turnover of individual entrepreneurs, including market trade, rose by 5.1%.

Non-food goods dominated the structure of retail turnover, accounting for 67.7%, while food products represented 32.3%. Sales of food products increased by 9.5% compared with the same period last year, while sales of non-food goods rose by 1.3%.

Almaty city traditionally accounted for the largest volume of retail trade, with a 31.5% share of the nationwide total. It was followed by Astana city (13.7%), Karaganda Region (7.1%) and East Kazakhstan Region (5.6%).

As of July 1, 2026, inventories held by reporting retail enterprises nationwide amounted to KZT 1.7 trillion, equivalent to 61 days of trade.

However, the official trade statistics warrant some scrutiny. The issue is most apparent in one particularly striking example. According to official data, retail trade turnover per capita in Kazakhstan amounted to KZT 1.36 million for the full year of 2025, up 16.3% in nominal terms from a year earlier.

First, let us describe the situation as it appears in the official reports. Almaty city remained the clear leader, with the figure reaching KZT 4.08 million per person — 3 times the national average. It was followed by Astana city (KZT 2.24 million) and East Kazakhstan Region (KZT 2.21 million), where retail trade turnover per capita was also significantly above the nationwide average. Karaganda Region, at KZT 1.64 million, also ranked among the top five.

Most regions were below the national average. The lowest figures were recorded in Turkistan Region (KZT 260.9 thousand per person), Zhambyl Region (KZT 496.8 thousand), Ulytau Region (KZT 553.1 thousand) and Zhetisu Region (KZT 584.1 thousand).

The highest growth rates were recorded in Akmola Region (up 32.9% in nominal terms), Turkistan Region (27.7%), West Kazakhstan Region (27.2%) and Zhetisu Region (26%). Mangystau Region was the only region where the figure declined, falling 4.3% from its 2024 level.

However, a closer look at the data makes it clear that the official statistics show an implausible degree of regional disparity. Taken at face value, the figures suggest that per capita retail spending in Shymkent is more than 4 times higher than in neighboring Turkistan Region, almost 9 times higher in Astana city, and an extraordinary 16 times higher in Almaty city.

Some of these differences can certainly be explained by objective factors. Almaty and Astana are the country’s largest retail hubs, attracting residents from other regions, with a significant share of purchases made in these major cities. Yet disparities of this magnitude, particularly between neighboring Shymkent and Turkistan Region, still appear difficult to reconcile with actual retail activity. A more plausible explanation is that the official statistics capture turnover recorded through cash-register receipts and formal reporting, while a substantial share of retail activity remains in the informal economy.